Strategic alignment and power transition: examining Iran’s proxy motives and China’s geopolitics in the Middle East

While many scholars emphasize sectarian or ideological goals, such as the creation of a “Shia Crescent,” this paper argues that Iran’s engagement with non-state actors like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias is better understood through a neorealist framework, focused on strategic deterrence, power balancing, and regional survival. The study examines this shift through the lens of strategic alignment and power transition rather than the commonly used traditional model. It also considers how broader great power dynamics, particularly involving the USA, China, Russia, and Israel, shape and sustain proxy environments. Drawing on comparative case studies and qualitative content analysis, the findings suggest that Iran’s proxy behavior is not solely ideologically driven but rooted in rational calculations within an evolving regional order. This research offers a fresh perspective on the real-world motives behind proxy warfare and its role in the broader context of Middle East geopolitics.