Predictors of mortality in the old-old in Israel: The cross-sectional and longitudinal aging study

Menachem Ben-Ezra, Dov Shmotkin

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

79 Scopus citations


OBJECTIVES: To examine whether well-known predictors of mortality change their predictive power over time, being reduced or even reversed in the old-old. DESIGN: A multidimensional survey of the Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Aging Study conducted from 1989 to 1992 with follow-up of mortality after 6, 8, 10, and 12 years since 1989. SETTING: Israel. PARTICIPANTS: Participants (N=1,369) were drawn from a national sample of the Jewish Israeli population aged 75 to 94. MEASUREMENTS: Data included sociodemographic factors and measures of health, physical condition, cognitive performance, and depression. RESULTS: The results showed that age, sex, disability, self-rated health, and marital status predicted mortality and that their predictive power changed over 9 years. CONCLUSION: In the old-old, predictors of mortality changed over time, and their predictive effect eventually diminished. The predictors found to be most significant (age, sex, disability, and self-rated health) support the common cause theory.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)906-911
Number of pages6
JournalJournal of the American Geriatrics Society
Issue number6
StatePublished - Jun 2006
Externally publishedYes


  • Aging
  • Mortality
  • Old-old
  • Predictors


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