Policy Study The Fall of the Regime in Syria – Implications for Israel and a Recommended Alternative for Political Discussion

In December 2024, after nearly 14 years of civil war, the Syrian rebel groups succeeded in overthrowing Bashar al-Assad’s regime, ending the Ba’athist regime that had been in power since the 1960s. Since then, the Syrian Liberation Organization, which now controls the country and is led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani (Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa), has made several attempts to stabilize the situation in Syria, including diplomatic efforts with Western countries. The new leader has already declared that free elections will take place only after a period of about four years, which is necessary to politically,security-wise, and economically stabilize Syria, and to resettle millions of Syria’s displaced persons and refugees. Israel is closely monitoring the new situation in Syria, which presents both threats and opportunities that must be carefully considered. In early 2025,there are two prominent issues that will affect the developments in the Syrian arena, with four scenarios that could affect Israeli interests in different ways.The first involves the extent to which the transitional regime in Syria will lead to the establishment of a regime with Islamic-Salafi features, or alternatively, the extent to which this regime will be characterized by broad consensus andwill aim to promote the existence of a society of all its citizens. Such a society, if it is formed in Syria, would embrace and show tolerance for minorities and may even attempt to establish a regime with semi-democratic characteristics. The second issue concerns the extent of Turkish intervention within the political-security-economic dynamics in Syria. Currently, the Turks are focused on deploying military forces mainly in the north of the country and against the Kurdish minority. However, there are Turkish calls to expand their presence across the country, which would strengthen Turkish influence on the Syrian regime and deter external actors such as Iran and Israel.