Factors Predicting Risk for PTSD Among Highly Exposed Civilians: Two Longitudinal Studies

The impact of exposure to constant, prolonged, life threatening, war-related stress is understudied. Previous studies did not examine stressors with an objective history of exposure to a traumatic event such as armed conflict. A set of predictors were assessed in two longitudinal studies. The studies included a civilian population (Study 1, N = 194; Study 2, N = 26) that was exposed to war-related stress. Both groups had a documented objective history of the stressor. A set of logistic regression models in Study 1 and an hierarchical multiple regression in Study 2 were conducted in order to assess the relationship between various predictors from the aforementioned domains and PTSD symptoms. In Study 1, having an elevated risk for clinical level of ASD led to a higher probability of elevated risk for clinical level of PTSD (odds ratio = 7.772, 95 % CI 1.225–49.300; p < .01). Similar results were found in Study 2, where ASD symptoms were the best predictor of PTSD symptoms (standardized β = .644; t = 3.183; p < .01). Whereas ASD was a moderate predictor of PTSD in studies which focused mainly on the impact of a single traumatic event, ASD was a major and potent predictor of PTSD in the current studies which focused on prolonged traumatic exposure to war-related stress.