Bounding pandemic spread by heat spread

Teddy Lazebnik, Uri Itai

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The beginning of a pandemic is a crucial stage for policymakers. Proper management at this stage can reduce overall health and economical damage. However, knowledge about the pandemic is insufficient. Thus, the use of complex and sophisticated models is challenging. In this study, we propose analytical and stochastic heat spread-based boundaries for the pandemic spread as indicated by the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. We study the spread of a pandemic on an interaction (social) graph as a diffusion and compared it with the stochastic SIR model. The proposed boundaries are not requiring accurate biological knowledge such as the SIR model does.

Original languageEnglish
Article number6
JournalJournal of Engineering Mathematics
Issue number1
StatePublished - Feb 2023
Externally publishedYes


  • Diffusion rate boundary
  • Graph-based stochastic SIR model
  • Partial-knowledge pandemic management


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