Linking affect and performance of an international level archer incorporating an idiosyncratic probabilistic method

Objective: To describe and operationalize a method of estimating the probability of varied performance levels (e.g., poor, moderate, or optimal) using multiple within-competition introspective affective measures (i.e., arousal and pleasantness) and heart rate (HR) of a professional female archer. Method and Design: The probabilistic method utilized in this study explores the dynamic nature of within-competition: (a) affect and performance levels; and (b) HR and performance levels by first using ordinal logistic regression, and then implementing an algorithm that converts the regression coefficients into five distinct Individual Affect-related Performance Zones (IAPZs). IAPZs are defined as that range of affective intensity or HR within which an individual has the highest probability of performing at a specific performance level (e.g., poorly, moderately, or optimally). The archer's IAPZs were determined over multiple competitions at five different shooting distances (18, 30, 50, 60, and 70 m). Results: The findings illustrate the archer's (a) unique IAPZs at each shooting distance, and (b) affective state fluctuations among her IAPZs during competition. Conclusions: This method of determining IAPZs can be applied to individual athletes for: (a) describing affective states and arousal levels associated with various performance levels; (b) use as descriptive data to infer consistency and stability of his or her states; and (c) use in designing psychological interventions with the goal of "stabilizing" the athlete's affective responses in a desirable fashion.