Holding the line: Austrian neutrality in the shadow of the war in Ukraine

This article examines the long-term implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the future of military neutrality in Europe, focusing on Austria—the most prominent constitutionally neutral European Union (EU) member state outside the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Using a mixed-methods approach, including a pair of survey experiments and elite interviews with Austrian officials involved in navigating neutrality, the study investigates whether Austria’s public and elite opinion can be swayed to reconsider neutrality and pursue more robust integration with NATO. The findings reveal a strong attachment to neutrality among respondents and interviewees, despite the heightened threat perception following the war in Ukraine and the impact of Finland and Sweden’s recent NATO accession. Specifically, no significant shift in support for abandoning neutrality is identified, even with strong EU endorsements or when demonstrating the potential economic and security incentives of such a policy shift. The results stress the deep-seated historical, legal, and emotional foundations of Austria’s neutrality and the legal complexities of amending it, implying that it is expected to remain a fundamental aspect of its national identity and foreign policy. This raises questions about the adaptability of neutrality policies in small states facing evolving regional security dynamics.