Explaining the Post-October 7 Durability of Israel's Peace Deals with Egypt and Jordan

Crafting and maintaining peace agreements is one of the most critical challenges in international relations and conflict resolution. Despite their initial promise, many such deals have failed, sparking renewed conflict and instability. This article argues that two primary factors influence the durability of these agreements: elite positions and interests reinforced by strong domestic institutions, and mediator involvement and guarantees. Through theoretical analysis and empirical evidence, the study demonstrates how these interconnected factors shape the likelihood of sustained peace and provides insights for improving future processes. Central to the analysis are case studies of two accords Israel forged with its neighbors—Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994. While the details of how the deals were created are important, more crucial is the examination of threats to their implementation and reasons for their durability, especially since the October 7 attacks. The article therefore improves on contemporary studies that focus on strategies to achieve peace agreements but underplay the importance of the factors that determine endurance.